The highly anticipated Shanghai Capella “Shapella” upgrade of Ethereum has recently gone live, but could it lead to a massive sell-off in the open market?
According to the latest report by Glassnode, the expert crypto analytics firm, analyst Alice Kohn has delved deep into different staking cohorts to estimate the potential amount of ETH that could be sold after the upgrade.
Keep reading to discover the possible impact of the Shapella upgrade on Ethereum’s market and the implications for your crypto portfolio.
Based on assumptions regarding investor conviction, profitability, and a 50% withdrawal credential update, Kohn estimates that a total of 170,000 ETH will be sold, with the number of exiting validators expected to double in the few days that follow the Shapella upgrade.
This update, which went live last night, marks the first time since Ethereum‘s renowned switch from the proof-of-work consensus algorithm that validators can withdraw ETH from the proof-of-stake network.
Extreme Outcome Scenario
Kohn acknowledged that there could be a more extreme outcome following Shapella, where the total accumulated rewards and the maximum amount of stake per week are withdrawn and sold, resulting in 1.54 million ETH worth nearly $2.95 billion hitting the open market.
However, the expert also stated that even in this scenario, there isn’t a reason to panic, as the sell-side volume still falls within the range of the average weekly exchange inflow volume.
Acceptable Impact on the Price of ETH
Kohn concluded that even the most extreme scenario will have an acceptable impact on the ETH price. Ethereum was trading at $1,916 at the time of writing this article, and the potential sell-off would be worth more than $325 million.
The Shapella upgrade aims to improve Ethereum’s transaction speed and efficiency, making it more user-friendly and reducing the high gas fees that have plagued the network since its inception. The upgrade is expected to attract more users to the platform and increase the value of Ether over time.